SOURCES · FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK — SOFR (MARKETS.NEWYORKFED.ORG) · U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY — DAILY TREASURY PAR YIELD CURVE
What moves your rate down
Lower LTV (each 5% below max)−0.125%
DSCR above 1.50−0.25%
5-yr prepay structure−0.25%
Repeat borrower (3+ loans)−0.125%
What moves it up
Cash-out refinance+0.25%
2–4 unit / condo+0.125%
Interest-only payment+0.25%
No prepay penalty+0.375%
WHERE RATES ARE HEADING
The rate environment, in the open
Twelve months of 30-year rates at the big three retail banks, four quarters of forward consensus, and where Silt's best DSCR tier sits against them. Investor money should be priced next to everyone else's.
UPDATED WEEKLY · LAST UPDATE AUG 06 2026
ILLUSTRATIVE DATA — LIVE FEED CONNECTS AT LAUNCH
Silt Capital — DSCR best tierJPMorgan ChaseBank of AmericaWells Fargo
This week
30-yr today
12-mo change
Q2 27 forecast
Silt Capital · DSCR
5.45%
−0.75
5.28%
JPMorgan Chase
5.95%
−0.67
5.70%
Bank of America
5.99%
−0.69
5.74%
Wells Fargo
6.04%
−0.68
5.78%
BANK RATES ARE OWNER-OCCUPIED CONFORMING; SILT IS INVESTOR DSCR — DIFFERENT PRODUCTS, SHOWN FOR CONTEXT. FORECASTS ARE CONSENSUS ESTIMATES, NOT COMMITMENTS.
What moves the next four quarters
Three inputs drive nearly all of the forward curve. None of them are the Fed's headline rate on its own.
01 · THE 10-YEAR
Treasury yields set the floor
Thirty-year mortgages track the 10-year Treasury, not the fed funds rate. When the 10-year moves 25 bps, expect mortgage pricing to follow within days.
02 · THE SPREAD
Risk premium compresses slowly
The gap between Treasuries and mortgage rates widened through the tightening cycle. Consensus expects gradual compression — which pulls rates down even if Treasuries hold flat.
03 · INVESTOR PREMIUM
DSCR moves on its own supply
Investor loans price off securitization demand, not retail mortgage flow. Strong appetite for rental paper is why our best tier can sit inside bank pricing.
Forecasts are consensus estimates, not commitments to lend. Your quote is priced off today's tier sheet and holds from signed term sheet through closing.